逐步淘汰煤炭的失业成本

中文摘要

减少碳排放将要求迅速逐步淘汰煤炭，并使数百万煤矿工人失业。这一能源转型可能使矿工付出多大代价？我们利用英国煤炭行业的急剧衰退来估计其对失业矿工的长期影响。我们发现了损失巨大的证据：失业一年后，时薪下降40%，收入下降80%至90%。这些损失具有持续性，十五年后收入仍显著低迷，收入损失的贴现现值相当于矿工失业前收入的四至六倍。• 我们估计了英国煤炭开采业崩溃期间工人失业后的收入降幅。• 失业一年后，时薪下降40%，收入下降80%至90%。• 十五年后，收入仍处于低迷状态。• 收入损失的现值相当于矿工失业前收入的四至六倍。

Abstract

The reduction of carbon emissions will require a rapid phasing out of coal and the displacement of millions of coal miners. How much could this energy transition cost mining workers? We use the dramatic collapse of the UK coal industry to estimate the long-term impact on displaced miners. We find evidence of substantial losses: hourly wages fell by 40% and earnings fell by 80% to 90% one year after job loss. These losses are persistent and remain significantly depressed fifteen years later, amounting to present discounted value earnings losses of between four and six times the miners pre-displacement earnings. • We estimate the decline in earnings following displacement during the collapse of coal mining in the UK. • Hourly wages fell by 40% and earnings fell by 80% to 90% one year after job loss. • Earnings remain depressed 15 years later. • Present value earnings losses amount to between 4 and 6 times the miners pre-displacement earnings.