健康冲击、健康保险、人力资本与收入及健康的动态
Health Shocks, Health Insurance, Human Capital, and the Dynamics of Earnings and Health
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · [{"name": "Elena Capatina", "affiliation": ["Australian National University"]}, {"name": "Michael P. Keane", "affiliation": ["Johns Hopkins University"]}]
中文摘要
我们构建了一个纳入健康冲击、健康保险与医疗（治疗）决策的劳动供给与人力资本形成的生命周期模型。我们利用该模型考察健康冲击对健康、劳动供给、收入以及收入不平等的影响，并模拟向缺乏雇主提供保险的个体提供公共保险的情形。尽管这会大幅增加医疗支出，但它为低技能劳动者创造了正向的劳动供给激励，同时降低了社会保险、医疗补助（Medicaid）与免费医疗的成本。该项目的净成本并不高，且在平衡预算的模拟中，模型中所有个体在事前的境况均得到改善。
Abstract
We develop a life-cycle model of labor supply and human capital formation that incorporates health shocks, health insurance, and medical treatment decisions. We use the model to study effects of health shocks on health, labor supply, earnings, and earnings inequality. We also simulate provision of public insurance to agents who lack employer-sponsored insurance. While this increases medical spending substantially, it creates positive labor supply incentives for low-skill workers while reducing costs of social insurance, Medicaid, and free care. The net program cost is modest, and all model agents are ex ante better off in a balanced budget simulation.