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政治领导人与宏观经济预期:来自一项全球调查实验的证据

Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Dorine Boumans、Klaus Gründler、Niklas Potrafke、Fabian Ruthardt

中文摘要

政治领导人能否在全球范围内影响宏观经济预期?我们针对在100多个国家工作的、有影响力的经济专家设计了一项大规模调查实验,并将2020年美国总统选举作为一项准自然实验,以识别美国在任总统更替对全球宏观经济预期的影响。我们发现,美国领导层更替对国际专家的经济增长预期产生了巨大影响。这一效应同时通过经济渠道(对贸易的预期更加乐观)和心理渠道(不受欢迎但权势强大的领导人落败所引发的非理性繁荣)发挥作用。我们的研究结果表明,政治因素在宏观经济预期的形成过程中具有重要的溢出效应。

Abstract

Can political leaders influence macroeconomic expectations on a global scale? We design a large-scale survey experiment among influential economic experts working in more than 100 countries and use the 2020 US presidential election as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of the US incumbent change on global macroeconomic expectations. We find large effects of the change in US leadership on growth expectations of international experts. The effect works through both economic (more positive expectations about trade) and psychological (irrational exuberance at the defeat of an unpopular but powerful leader) channels. Our findings suggest important political spillover effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations.
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