反利润转移规则的效应：发展中国家的视角

中文摘要

跨国公司利润转移是中低收入国家（LMICs）面临的一项重大关切。许多国家已制定反利润转移规则，以遏制此类避税行为。然而，人们对这些规则的效应知之甚少。我们首次对其进行实证评估，并提供两方面的证据：第一，我们利用120多个中低收入国家长达30年的宏观数据，表明转让定价（TP）规则——限制企业内部贸易错误定价所导致利润转移的规定——的引入显著增加了中低收入国家的企业所得税收入。第二，我们利用南非丰富的税收征管和贸易数据，就企业对更严格转让定价规定的行为反应提供“第一阶段”证据：我们证实，南非转让定价规则的收紧减少了企业内部贸易的错误定价，并增加了受影响跨国公司的应税所得申报额。

Abstract

Multinational profit shifting is a major concern for low and middle income countries (LMICs). Many have enacted anti-profit shifting rules in order to constrain this type of tax avoidance behavior. Yet, not much is known on the rules’ effects. We offer a first empirical assessment, providing two pieces of evidence: First, we draw on macro data for more than 120 LMICs for a 30-year-period and show that the introduction of transfer pricing (TP) rules – provisions that constrain profit shifting from mis-pricing of intra-firm trade – significantly increased corporate tax revenue collection in LMICs. Second, we use rich tax administrative and trade data for South Africa to provide “first-stage” evidence for firms’ behavioral response to stricter TP provisions: we establish that a tightening of South African TP rules reduced intra-firm trade mis-pricing and increased taxable income reporting of affected multinational firms.