多布斯案后堕胎禁令对生育的影响

中文摘要

美国最高法院对“多布斯诉杰克逊妇女健康组织案”的裁决，引发了50年来堕胎服务可及性格局最为深刻的转变。我们采用预注册的合成双重差分设计，结合新近发布的2023年上半年临时出生统计数据，首次估计了近乎全面的堕胎禁令对生育的影响。结果表明，与未实施禁令的反事实情形相比，实施堕胎禁令的州出生人数平均增加了2.3%。

Abstract

The U.S. Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization sparked the most profound transformation of the landscape of abortion access in 50 years. We provide the first estimates of the effects of near-total abortion bans on fertility using a pre-registered synthetic difference-in-differences design applied to newly released provisional natality data for the first half of 2023. The results indicate that states with abortion bans experienced an average increase in births of 2.3 percent relative to if no bans had been enforced.