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守门人的困境:政治甄选还是团队协作

The gatekeeper’s dilemma: Political selection or team effort
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Jon H. Fiva、Federica Izzo、Janne Tukiainen

中文摘要

政党在选举中发挥着至关重要的守门人作用,包括掌控选举资源、招募候选人以及确定选举名单的构成。在作出这些战略选择时,政党既力图激励候选人为竞选投入,也试图为其偏好的候选人争取优势。我们利用挪威地方选举制度的一项特定安排,研究政党如何权衡这一取舍;在其他方面均为开放式名单的情况下,该安排允许政党赋予部分候选人有利位置。我们的理论表明,政党事前的选举实力会影响其战略决策。值得注意的是,支持率较高的政党所面临的这种权衡较弱,因而能够在不损害政党整体表现的情况下促成其偏好候选人当选。我们的实证结果表明,道德风险顾虑确实存在,而且规模较大的政党确实更有可能运用其权力确保部分候选人稳妥当选。大党所享有的优势还不止于此:确保特定候选人当选,使政党能够在选后谈判中取得不成比例的有利结果。这些发现为更广泛地理解政治代表、政策结果和党内动态提供了新的见解。

Abstract

Political parties play a crucial gatekeeping role in elections, including controlling electoral resources, candidate recruitment, and electoral list compositions. In making these strategic choices, parties aim to encourage candidates to invest in the campaign, while also trying to secure advantages for their preferred candidates. We study how parties navigate this trade-off using a specific feature of the Norwegian local electoral system in which parties can give advantaged positions to some candidates in an otherwise open list. Our theory reveals that parties’ ex-ante electoral strength impacts their strategic decisions. Notably, the trade-off is weaker for more popular parties, allowing them to facilitate the election of their preferred candidates without compromising the party’s overall performance. We show empirically that the moral hazard concern is real, and that larger parties are indeed more likely to use their power to make some candidates safe. The advantage of large parties extends further: safeguarding specific candidates enables parties to achieve disproportionately favorable outcomes in post-electoral bargaining. These findings reveal new insights for political representations, policy outcomes, and intra-party dynamics more broadly.
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