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理解并提高政策制定者对项目影响的敏感度

Understanding and increasing policymakers’ sensitivity to program impact
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Mattie Toma、Elizabeth Bell

中文摘要

政策制定者经常需要作出事关重大的资助决策。评估一个项目的价值并非易事,且可能受到有限理性的影响。我们对美国政策制定者和普通公众开展了实验,让参与者有机会评估各类政策项目的价值。研究发现,决策辅助工具可提高受访者对项目影响的响应程度。我们设计并检验了两种便于推广的决策辅助工具:一种对各项目进行并列比较,另一种将影响的多个特征汇总为一项单一指标。这两种决策辅助工具使项目价值评估相对于项目影响的弹性,在政策制定者中于0.33的基准上提高了0.20,在普通公众中于0.21的基准上提高了0.21。我们提供的证据表明,将与影响相关的信息转化为政策决策时所面临的认知困难,有助于解释我们的研究发现。

Abstract

Policymakers routinely make high-stakes funding decisions. Assessing the value of a program is difficult and may be affected by bounded rationality. We conducted experiments involving U.S. policymakers and the general public, in which participants were given the opportunity to assess the value of various policy programs. Our findings demonstrate that decision aids enhance the responsiveness of respondents to the impact of the programs. We designed and tested two portable decision aids—one that compares programs side-by-side and another that aggregates multiple features of impact into a single metric. The two decision aids increase the elasticity of assessments of program value with respect to impact by 0.20 on a base of 0.33 among policymakers and by 0.21 on a base of 0.21 among the general public. We provide evidence that the cognitive difficulty of translating impact-relevant information into policy decisions helps explain our findings.
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