中文摘要
本文利用一项涵盖逾17,000份纳税申报表的随机稽查计划，研究税务稽查如何影响具有不同合规意愿的自雇者此后的合规行为。借助稽查人员提供的有关纳税人感知合规意愿的新信息，本文发现，因疏忽或误解税收规则而无意违规的纳税人在随后数年的合规程度更高。五年后，由此增加的税收收入相当于稽查所查补税款的340%。相比之下，蓄意逃税且通常是专项稽查对象的有意违规者对稽查并无反应，其逃税款的追缴率也较低。基于这些发现，本文说明了如何利用稽查前信息生成的风险评分，将稽查对象锁定为预计会对稽查作出强烈反应的纳税人；与侧重稽查初始收入的方法相比，这可使税收收入增益提高87%。最后，本文提出，与成本高昂的稽查相比，提供有针对性的个性化指导是一种成本更低的替代方案，可用于减少无意误报。
Abstract
Using a random audit program covering more than 17,000 tax returns, I study how tax audits affect the subsequent compliance behavior of self-employed with varying intentions to comply. Leveraging novel information provided by auditors on taxpayers’ perceived willingness to comply, I find that unintentional non-compliers, driven by inattention or misunderstandings of the tax rules, exhibit higher compliance in subsequent years. This results in a revenue increase equivalent to 340% of the tax uncovered from the audit after 5 years. In contrast, intentional non-compliers who deliberately evade taxes and are typically targeted for operational audits do not respond to audits and have a low recovery rate for evaded taxes. Based on these findings, I illustrate how risk scores derived from pre-audit information can be used to target taxpayers expected to respond strongly to audits, leading to increased revenue gains of 87% compared to an approach that focuses on initial revenue from audits. Finally, I propose targeted and personalized guidance as a cheaper alternative to mitigate unintentional misreporting compared to expensive audits.