Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand
中文摘要
我们提出一种用于估计汽油需求价格弹性的新工具变量，该工具变量利用美国各州在石油价格冲击向零售汽油价格传导方面的系统性差异。我们表明，这些差异主要由汽油生产和分销成本所驱动，而该成本会随各州接入石油和汽油运输基础设施的便利程度、炼油技术及环境法规而变化，从而使总体石油价格冲击引发横截面上的汽油价格冲击。时变估计结果不支持以下观点：自20世纪80年代以来，汽油需求弹性的绝对值已下降至接近于零。该弹性在2014年末之前一直稳定在−0.3附近，2015—2016年升至约−0.2，但自2016年以来一直保持稳定。在个人收入较低、失业率较高且城市人口占比较低的州，汽油需求的响应更为显著。没有证据表明，汽油需求弹性对正向与负向汽油价格冲击存在非对称性。我们阐明了这些弹性估计如何为近期有关汽油税暂免对消费者可自由支配收入的影响，以及乌克兰遭入侵后汽油价格飙升所造成的需求损失等政策争论提供依据。
Abstract
We propose a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices. We show that these differences are primarily driven by the cost of producing and distributing gasoline, which varies with states’ access to oil and gasoline transportation infrastructure, refinery technology, and environmental regulations, creating cross-sectional gasoline price shocks in response to an aggregate oil price shock. Time-varying estimates do not support the view that the gasoline demand elasticity has declined in absolute value to near zero since the 1980s. The elasticity was stable near −0.3 until the end of 2014. It rose to about −0.2 in 2015–16, but has remained stable since 2016. Gasoline demand is more responsive in states with lower personal income, higher unemployment rates and lower urban population shares. There is no evidence for an asymmetry in the elasticity with respect to positive and negative gasoline price shocks. We illustrate how these elasticity estimates inform the recent policy debate about the impact of gasoline tax holidays on consumers’ discretionary income and about the demand destruction from the spike in gasoline prices after the invasion of Ukraine.