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提前支取罚则对退休储蓄的影响

The impact of withdrawal penalties on retirement savings
Journal of Public Economics · 2024 · Ellen Stuart、Victoria Bryant

中文摘要

享受税收优惠的退休账户具有旨在鼓励储蓄的制度设计,其中包括对在59.5岁之前支取资金的行为处以罚款。账户持有人若未能在72岁以后按规定提取最低金额,也将面临罚款。利用聚束分析,我们估计,这些罚则每年促使超过17%的传统个人退休账户(IRA)持有人改变支取时间,每年转移的支取金额接近600亿美元。我们估计了一个动态生命周期模型,以分析调整这些罚则的影响。对于两项罚则,我们均发现,存在可提高平均福利和终身税款缴纳额的年龄门槛与罚款税率替代组合。

Abstract

Tax-benefited retirement accounts have features designed to encourage saving, including a penalty for withdrawing before age 5912. Account holders also face a penalty for failing to take required minimum withdrawals after age 72. Using a bunching analysis, we estimate that these penalties cause over 17% of traditional IRA holders to change their withdrawal timing each year, shifting almost $60 billion of distributions annually. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model to analyze the effect of changing these penalties. For both penalties, we find alternative combinations of age threshold and penalty rate that lead to increased average welfare and lifetime tax remittances.
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