心中的未来：埃塞俄比亚农村的抱负与长期结果

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Tanguy Bernard", "affiliation": ["Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique", "Université de Bordeaux", "Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement"]}, {"name": "Stefan Dercon", "affiliation": ["Centre for Economic Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Kate Orkin", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Centre for Economic Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Giulio Schinaia", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}]

中文摘要

摘要　抱负可能影响个体面向未来的选择，从而可能在贫困的持续或摆脱贫困的努力中发挥作用。我们在埃塞俄比亚偏远农村地区开展了一项随机对照试验以探究这一问题，并评估一项旨在改变贫困人口对其未来机会的认知、改变其抱负、并借此改变其投资决策的干预。处理组观看了视频纪录片，片中呈现来自相似社区、通过自身努力摆脱贫困、可作为与其处境相近且能引发共鸣之榜样的个体。放映五年后，受处理家庭在农业、子女教育和资产方面面向未来的投资有所增加。这一结果可由其在人生目标层面的抱负提升来解释。总体而言，本研究独特地提供了证据，表明一种轻触式行为干预能够对贫困人口产生持续的经济影响。

Abstract

Abstract Aspirations may condition the future-oriented choices of individuals and thus may play a role in the persistence of poverty or the effort to break out of it. We run a randomized controlled trial in remote, rural Ethiopia to explore this and evaluate an intervention that aims to change how poor people perceive their future opportunities, alter their aspirations, and through that, modify their investment decisions. A treatment group was shown video documentaries featuring individuals from similar communities who escaped poverty through their own efforts and who serve as relatable role models. Five years after the screening took place, the treated households had increased future-oriented investments in agriculture, children’s education, and assets. The results can be explained by an increase in aspirations in terms of lifetime goals. Overall, this research uniquely provides evidence that a light-touch behavioural intervention can have persistent economic impacts on a poor population.