谢尔比县诉霍尔德案对选民投票率的差异化种族影响

中文摘要

在谢尔比县诉霍尔德案（2013年）中，美国最高法院推翻了《投票权法》的一项核心条款，该条款授权联邦政府对特定辖区的选举实施监督。我们研究这一判决是否对黑人和西班牙裔登记选民的投票渠道产生了不成比例的影响。我们使用涵盖全体登记选民的丰富选民行为数据，并结合人口普查街区层面的社会人口属性，发现与白人相比，黑人的投票率有所下降。我们还观察到西班牙裔投票率下降的提示性证据，但其稳健性较弱。这些效应集中在黑人和西班牙裔人口占比较高的县，与选民压制措施策略性针对特定群体的情形一致。

Abstract

In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), the Supreme Court struck down a core provision of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) that enabled federal electoral oversight in select jurisdictions. We study whether this decision disproportionately impacted ballot access for Black and Hispanic registered voters. We use a rich dataset on voter behavior for the universe of registered voters combined with Census block-level sociodemographic attributes to document a decrease in turnout for Black, relative to white, individuals. We observe suggestive but less robust evidence of decreases in Hispanic turnout. These effects are concentrated in counties with larger Black and Hispanic populations, consistent with strategic targeting of voter suppression.