Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds
American Economic Review · 2022 · Michael Gelman、Shachar Kariv、Matthew D. Shapiro、Dan Silverman
中文摘要
低流动性与高边际消费倾向密切相关。本文在所得税预扣和退税的背景下分析这一联系。一个包含收入不确定性的理性现金管理理论将非流动性与边际消费倾向之间的关系内生化，并能够解释以下发现：家庭往往像重视流动性那样支出退税款，却不会通过减少预扣税款来提高流动性。基于金融账户记录的个体层面证据支持这一理论，其中包括退税金额与家庭从退税款中的边际消费倾向之间的正相关关系。（JEL E21, G51, H24, H31）
Abstract
Low liquidity and a high marginal propensity to consume are tightly linked. This paper analyzes this link in the context of income tax withholding and refunds. A theory of rational cash management with income uncertainty endogenizes the relationship between illiquidity and the marginal propensity to consume, and can explain the finding that households tend to spend tax refunds as if they valued liquidity, yet do not act to increase liquidity by reducing their withholding. The theory is supported by individual-level evidence based on financial account records, including a positive correlation between the size of tax refunds and the marginal propensity to consume out of those refunds. (JEL E21, G51, H24, H31)