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大学辍学与信息揭示的动态

College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Peter Arcidiacono、Esteban Aucejo、Arnaud Maurel、Tyler Ransom

中文摘要

我们通过估计一个动态结构模型,考察信息摩擦如何影响教育和就业结果。在该模型中,个体无法确定自身的学业能力和生产率,而这两者分别决定其就学效用和工资。我们将不同的大学类型、专业、职业搜寻摩擦和工作时长纳入考量。个体从成绩和工资中学习,这些信息可能影响其选择。消除信息摩擦将使毕业率提高4.4个百分点;若同时消除搜寻摩擦,毕业率还将进一步提高2个百分点。向学生提供有关其能力的完整信息,将提高大学教育溢价与白领工资溢价,同时缩小不同家庭收入群体之间的毕业率差距。

Abstract

We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage points and by an additional 2 points without search frictions. Providing students with full information about their abilities would increase the college and white-collar wage premia while reducing the graduation gap by family income.
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