Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program
Review of Economic Studies · 2023 · Martha J Bailey、Hilary Hoynes、Maya Rossin-Slater、Reed Walker
中文摘要
我们利用涵盖1750万美国人的新型大规模数据，研究政策驱动的经济资源增加如何影响儿童的长期结果。我们将2000年人口普查和2001—2013年美国社区调查与美国社会保障署的NUMIDENT数据库相链接，利用1961—1975年间食品券计划在县级层面的分步推行进行识别。我们发现，五岁前能够获得更多经济资源的儿童成年后的结果更好。处理组平均处理效应显示，人力资本提高了一个标准差的6%，经济自立程度提高了一个标准差的3%，居住社区质量提高了一个标准差的8%，预期寿命延长了1.2年，入狱概率下降了0.5个百分点。这些估计结果表明，食品券向家庭转移资源是对幼儿的一项极具成本效益的投资，其公共资金边际价值约为62。
Abstract
We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children's long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001–13 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration's NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level rollout of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975. We find that children with access to greater economic resources before age five have better outcomes as adults. The treatment-on-the-treated effects show a 6% of a standard deviation improvement in human capital, 3% of a standard deviation increase in economic self-sufficiency, 8% of a standard deviation increase in the quality of neighbourhood of residence, a 1.2-year increase in life expectancy, and a 0.5 percentage-point decrease in likelihood of being incarcerated. These estimates suggest that Food Stamps’ transfer of resources to families is a highly cost-effective investment in young children, yielding a marginal value of public funds of approximately sixty-two.