Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · Julien Albertini、Arthur Poirier、Anthony Terriau
中文摘要
作为联邦劳动所得税抵免（EITC）的补充，一些州提供本州的EITC，其金额通常按联邦EITC的一定比例计算。本文利用美国州界处的政策不连续性，分析州EITC对教育的影响。我们的估计结果显示，州EITC的增加会导致高中辍学率出现统计显著的上升。随后，我们采用一个包含定向搜寻以及内生教育选择、搜寻强度、雇用、工作时长和离职的生命周期匹配模型，研究EITC在长期及转型动态过程中对劳动力市场的影响。我们表明，针对低工资（和低技能）劳动者的税收抵免会降低受教育的相对回报，从而对接受长期教育形成强烈的抑制作用。从长期来看，这会提高经济中低技能劳动者的比例，并可能对就业、生产率和收入不平等产生重要影响。最后，我们利用该模型确定EITC的最优设计。
Abstract
As a complement to the federal earned income tax credit (EITC), some states offer their own EITC, typically calculated as a percentage of the federal EITC. In this paper, we analyse the effect of state EITC on education using policy discontinuities at US state borders. Our estimates reveal that an increase in the state EITC leads to a statistically significant increase in the high school dropout rate. We then use a life-cycle matching model with directed search and endogenous educational choices, search intensities, hirings, hours worked, and separations to investigate the effects of EITC on the labour market in the long run and along the transitional dynamics. We show that a tax credit targeted at low-wage (and low-skilled) workers reduces the relative return to schooling, thereby generating a powerful disincentive to pursue long-term studies. In the long run, this results in an increase in the proportion of low-skilled workers in the economy, which may have important implications for employment, productivity, and income inequality. Finally, we use the model to determine the optimal design of the EITC.