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政治家何时会广泛争取选民?巴西选举规则的经济后果

When Do Politicians Appeal Broadly? The Economic Consequences of Electoral Rules in Brazil
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2023 · Moya Chin

中文摘要

选举规则决定了选民偏好如何汇总并转化为政治代表。采用断点回归设计,我比较了巴西的单轮选举与两轮选举。在两轮选举中,最终胜选者必须获得至少50%的选票。我表明,两轮选举会激励候选人争取更广泛的支持基础,并向更广泛的群体提供公共品。候选人所代表的选民在地域上更为多元,公立学校拥有更多资源,且校际资源差异更小。相关效应似乎由候选人的策略性反应驱动,而非由参选情况的差异所致。(JEL D72、H41、H75、I21、I28、O15、O17)

Abstract

Electoral rules determine how voters’ preferences are aggregated and translated into political representation. Using a regression discontinuity design, I contrast single- and two-round elections in Brazil. In two-round elections, the eventual winner must obtain at least 50 percent of the vote. I show that two-round elections provide incentives for candidates to secure a broader base of support and provide public goods more broadly. Candidates represent a more geographically diverse group of voters, public schools have more resources, and there is less variation in resources across schools. Effects appear to be driven by strategic responses of candidates rather than differential entry into races. (JEL D72, H41, H75, I21, I28, O15, O17)
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