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我们在暗处支付的代价:劳动税逃税、最低工资上调与就业

What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Nicolas Gavoille、Anna Zasova

中文摘要

最低工资政策与逃税之间的相互作用在很大程度上仍不为人所知。我们在工资少报现象普遍存在的背景下,研究一次幅度较大且具有实质约束力的最低工资上调对企业层面就业的影响。我们运用机器学习将企业划分为税收合规企业和逃税企业。随后我们发现,从事劳动税逃税的企业对最低工资冲击并不敏感。我们的结果表明,这些企业将工资少报作为一种调整边际,把此前未申报的部分现金支付转为正式工资。提高最低工资改善了税收执法,但代价是给合规企业带来负面的就业后果。

Abstract

The interactions between minimum wage policy and tax evasion remain largely unknown. We study the firm-level employment effects of a large and biting minimum wage increase in the context of widespread wage underreporting. We apply machine learning to classify firms as either tax-compliant or tax-evading. We then show that firms engaged in labor tax evasion are insensitive to the minimum wage shock. Our results indicate that these firms use wage underreporting as an adjustment margin, converting part of their formerly undeclared cash payments into official wages. Increasing the minimum wage improves tax enforcement, but comes at the cost of negative employment consequences for compliant firms.
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