Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Gian Maria Campedelli、Gianmarco Daniele、Andrea Martinangeli、Paolo Pinotti
中文摘要
公民的支持对于有效打击有组织犯罪至关重要，而有组织犯罪对许多国家构成重大威胁。既有研究发现犯罪与对国家的信任之间存在负相关关系；与此相反，我们通过研究意大利5374名具有代表性的个体样本发现，让参与者接触有组织犯罪相关暴力的新闻图片，会提高其对制度和国家绩效的信任（以向政府组织而非非政府组织捐款来衡量）、对制度质量的感知以及对政治制度的信任。鉴于参与者对暴力趋势过度悲观，这一结果尤为引人注目：约三分之二的参与者认为，过去二十年间意大利与黑手党相关的凶杀案和凶杀案总数均有所增加，半数参与者认为增幅超过20%，而实际上这两类凶杀案均下降了60%以上。这些发现对有意采用非压制性方法打击犯罪组织的政府和组织具有重要意义，因为它们凸显了媒体叙事在塑造公众对犯罪和国家当局的态度方面可能产生的潜在影响。
Abstract
Citizens’ support is crucial to effectively combat organized crime, a substantial threat to many countries. Contrary to prior studies identifying a negative correlation between crime and trust in the state, studying a representative sample of 5374 individuals in Italy we find that exposing the participants to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence increases trust towards institutions and state performance (measured by donations to a governmental as opposed to a non-governmental organization), perceived institutional quality, and trust in political institutions . This is remarkable considering that the participants are overly pessimistic about trends in violence: About two-thirds believe that mafia-related homicides and total homicides increased in Italy over the last two decades, and half believe that they increased by over 20%, while in reality both types of homicides declined by over 60%. These findings are relevant for governments and organizations interested in non-repressive methods to fight criminal organizations, as they underscore the potential impact of media narratives on shaping public attitudes toward crime and state authorities.