Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Gharad Bryan、Shyamal Chowdhury、Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak、Melanie Morten、Joeri Smits
中文摘要
有条件现金转移（CCT）项目旨在通过鼓励受助者从事其投入不足的合意行为来减少贫困或推进社会目标。附加条件的一个非预期后果可能是以降低福利的方式扭曲受助者的行为。我们首先说明世界各地CCT项目可能产生的一系列扭曲。随后，我们表明，在一个简单情形下——即CCT促使低回报参与者选择采取某种行为，且社会回报与私人感知回报一致——转移金额会发挥重要作用：转移金额越大，扭曲越强。这意味着：（i）此类CCT存在最优转移金额；（ii）当转移金额较大时，无条件现金转移（UCT）可能优于CCT。我们通过研究印度尼西亚农村一项以季节性劳务迁移为条件的现金转移项目，提供了与上述论断一致的经验证据。与理论一致，我们表明，当转移金额超过支付出行费用所需的金额时，扭曲效应占据主导地位，迁移收入随之下降。
Abstract
Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs aim to reduce poverty or advance social goals by encouraging desirable behavior that recipients under-invest in. An unintended consequence of conditionality may be the distortion of recipients’ behavior in ways that lower welfare. We first illustrate a range of potential distortions arising from CCT programs around the world. We then show that in the simple case where a CCT causes low return participants to select into a behavior, and social returns and private perceived returns are aligned, transfer size plays an important role: the larger the transfer, the stronger the distortion becomes, implying that (i) there is an optimal transfer size for such CCTs, and (ii) unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may be better than CCTs when the transfer amount is large. We provide empirical evidence consistent with these claims by studying a cash transfer program conditional on seasonal labor migration in rural Indonesia. In line with theory, we show that when the transfer size exceeds the amount required for travel expenses, distortionary effects dominate and migration earnings decrease.