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失业保险中的操纵与选择

Manipulation and Selection in Unemployment Insurance
The Economic Journal · 2025 · Luca Citino、Kilian Russ、Vincenzo Scrutinio

中文摘要

本文研究了成功将解雇时间推迟至某一解雇年龄门槛之后、从而获得额外四个月失业保险待遇的个人(即操纵者)的选择模式。利用意大利的行政数据和聚束技术,我们记录了临界点附近显著的操纵现象,并表明操纵者是依据其长期非就业风险被选择出来的,而不是依据其道德风险成本。最后,我们构建了一个充分统计量框架,以评估在存在操纵的情况下,这些发现如何影响最优失业保险期限。

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we study the selection patterns of individuals who manage to have their lay-off delayed around an age at lay-off threshold entitling them to four additional months of unemployment insurance, that is, manipulators. Using administrative data from Italy and bunching techniques, we document substantial manipulation around the cut-off and show that manipulators are selected on their long-term non-employment risk, but not on their moral hazard cost. Finally, we develop a sufficient statistics framework to assess how these findings affect optimal unemployment insurance duration in the presence of manipulation.
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