通过社交网络传播信息来撮合选票
Brokering Votes With Information Spread Via Social Networks
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Raúl Duarte", "affiliation": ["Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "Frederico Finan", "affiliation": ["Berkeley College", "University of California, Berkeley"]}, {"name": "Horacio Larreguy", "affiliation": ["Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México"]}, {"name": "Laura Schechter", "affiliation": ["University of Wisconsin–Madison", "Madison Group (United States)", "YWCA Madison", "University of Wisconsin Health"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 在发展中世界的许多地区, 政治人物依赖政治掮客来购买选票。我们考察社会网络如何促进这些买票交易。我们的概念框架表明, 掮客应当在网络中处于特别有利的位置, 以了解非同党派公民的互惠倾向, 从而有效地定向发放 (买票) 转移。因此, 政党应招募在非同党派人士中处于中心位置的掮客。我们将来自掮客与公民的村庄网络数据同掮客的买票报告相结合, 从而得以运用掮客固定效应与公民固定效应。我们表明, 网络将有关公民的信息扩散给掮客, 掮客则利用这些信息来定向发放转移。具体而言, 在那些未登记为其政党成员的公民中, 掮客瞄准的是具有互惠性、且其可通过网络了解到更多信息的公民, 而这些公民更有可能支持掮客所属的政党。此外, 被招募的掮客在非同党派人士中的中心性显著高于其他公民, 但在同党派人士中则不然。这些结果凸显了信息通过社会网络扩散对于买票、掮客招募乃至最终对政治结果的重要性。
Abstract
Abstract Politicians rely on political brokers to buy votes throughout much of the developing world. We investigate how social networks facilitate these vote-buying exchanges. Our conceptual framework suggests brokers should be particularly well-placed within the network to learn about non-copartisans’ reciprocity in order to target transfers effectively. As a result, parties should recruit brokers who are central among non-copartisans. We combine village network data from brokers and citizens with broker reports of vote buying, allowing us to use broker and citizen fixed effects. We show that networks diffuse information about citizens to brokers who leverage it to target transfers. In particular, among those citizens who are not registered to their party, brokers target reciprocal citizens about whom they can learn more through their network, and these citizens are more likely to support the brokers’ party. Moreover, recruited brokers are significantly more central than other citizens among non-copartisans, but not among copartisans. These results highlight the importance of information diffusion through social networks for vote buying, broker recruitment, and ultimately for political outcomes.