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童年之后的认知技能发展

Cognitive Skills Beyond Childhood
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Uta Bolt

中文摘要

本文记录了认知技能在童年之后如何发展。利用一项自1958年起追踪的英国出生队列的独特数据,我将童年期的认知技能与50岁时的认知技能相联系。基于这些数据,我确立了五个事实。第一,童年期认知技能强烈地持续到成年期。第二,50岁时的工资由16岁时的认知技能预测得更好,而非由50岁时的认知技能预测。第三,高等教育预测更高的认知技能与工资。第四,职业选择预测工资,但不预测50岁时的认知技能。第五,离开劳动力市场的时期会贬损工资,但不贬损50岁时的认知技能。

Abstract

Abstract This paper documents how cognitive skills develop beyond childhood. Using unique data from a British birth cohort followed since 1958, I link cognitive skills in childhood to cognitive skills at 50. I establish five facts from these data. First, childhood cognitive skills persist strongly into adulthood. Second, wages at 50 are better predicted by cognitive skills at 16 than by cognitive skills at 50. Third, higher education predicts higher cognitive skills and wages. Fourth, occupational choice predicts wages, but not cognitive skills at 50. Fifth, periods out of the labour market depreciate wages, but not cognitive skills at 50.
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