The Economic Journal · 2025 · Andrés Erosa、Ismael Gálvez-Iniesta、Matthias Kredler
中文摘要
来自西班牙行政数据的证据表明，大衰退对就业和工资产生了持久影响，且对不同男性劳动者群体的影响存在异质性。为评估经济衰退对男性职业生涯的长期影响，我们构建了一个劳动力市场周期性波动的统计模型。在该模型中，与年长劳动者相比，年轻劳动者更可能受雇于临时性工作，这增加了他们在衰退来袭时面临离职的概率。衰退期间较低的再就业率意味着，被解雇的劳动者很可能面临长期失业和较少的技能积累，从而导致未来劳动力市场结果恶化。我们的结果表明，在大衰退开始时进入经济体、受教育程度低于高中的个人，遭受的终身收入损失最高，约为12%。高中和大学毕业生遭受的损失则分别约为9%和8%。技能积累与二元劳动力市场之间的相互作用，驱动了经济衰退的持久影响。
Abstract
Abstract Evidence from Spanish administrative data suggests that the Great Recession had long-lasting effects on employment and wages, with heterogeneous impacts across different groups of male workers. To assess the long-run effects of recessions on males’ careers, we develop a statistical model of cyclical fluctuations in the labour market. In the model, young workers are more likely to be employed in temporary jobs than older workers, increasing their likelihood of facing a job separation when a recession hits. Low job-finding rates during recessions imply that displaced workers will likely face a long period of unemployment and lower skill accumulation, feeding into worse future labour-market outcomes. Our results indicate that individuals with less than a high school education entering the economy at the start of the Great Recession suffered the highest lifetime earnings losses of about 12%. High school and college graduates experienced losses of about 9% and 8%. The interaction between skill accumulation and the dual labour market drives the long-lasting effects of recessions.