The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment
中文摘要
预期子女成年后将领取政府福利，会如何影响父母对子女人力资本的投资？在子女领取补充保障收入（SSI）福利的父母中，大多数人高估了子女成年后领取SSI福利的可能性。我们向随机选取的家庭展示了其子女成年后领取SSI福利的预测概率。降低父母对子女成年后领取福利的预期，并未增加对子女人力资本的投资。这一零效应得到了精确估计。可能的解释包括：父母自身增加劳动供给、非经济目标影响投资决策，以及家庭面临投资约束。（JEL G52, I26, I38, J13, J24, J31）
Abstract
How does the expectation that a child will receive government benefits in adulthood affect parental investments in the child’s human capital? Most parents whose children receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. We present randomly selected families with the predicted likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. Reducing parents’ expectations that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children’s human capital. This zero effect is precisely estimated. Likely explanations include parents working more themselves, nonfinancial goals influencing investment, and families facing investment constraints. (JEL G52, I26, I38, J13, J24, J31)