进口、出口与收入不平等：暴露度衡量与归宿估计

中文摘要

个人收入取决于其所供给要素服务的需求。因此，国际贸易可能影响收入不平等，其原因可能是：（i）外国消费者和企业对国内要素服务的需求比例不同于国内消费者和企业，即出口渠道；或（ii）国内消费者和企业因外国商品的可获得性而改变对国内要素服务的需求，即进口渠道。基于这一思路，我们构建了个体层面的出口暴露度和进口暴露度新指标，并估计了二者在收入分布中的归宿。我们实证分析的关键投入是一套来自厄瓜多尔的独特行政数据，该数据整合了企业间交易数据、雇主—雇员匹配数据、所有者—企业匹配数据以及企业层面的海关交易记录。我们发现，出口暴露度有利于中产阶级，进口暴露度有利于富裕阶层；就总体归宿而言，进口渠道是主导力量。因此，厄瓜多尔的收入不平等程度高于不存在贸易时的水平。

Abstract

Abstract The earnings of individuals depend on the demand for the factor services they supply. International trade may therefore affect earnings inequality because either (i) foreign consumers and firms demand domestic factor services in different proportions than domestic consumers and firms do, an export channel; or (ii) domestic consumers and firms change their demand for domestic factor services in response to the availability of foreign goods, an import channel. Building on this idea, we develop new measures of export and import exposure at the individual level and provide estimates of their incidence across the earnings distribution. The key input fed into our empirical analysis is a unique administrative data set from Ecuador that merges firm-to-firm transaction data, employer-employee matched data, owner-firm matched data, and firm-level customs transaction records. We find that export exposure is pro-middle class, import exposure is pro-rich, and in terms of overall incidence, the import channel is the dominant force. As a result, earnings inequality in Ecuador is higher than it would be in the absence of trade.