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冲击与技术采用:来自电子支付系统的证据

Shocks and Technology Adoption: Evidence from Electronic Payment Systems
Journal of Political Economy · 2023 · Nicolas Crouzet、Apoorv Gupta、Filippo Mezzanotti

中文摘要

我们利用印度废钞运动期间一家大型电子钱包提供商的数据,提供了关于协调摩擦在技术采用中重要性的证据。利用对废钞运动暴露程度的地理变异,我们表明,面对大幅但暂时的现金收缩,电子钱包的采用持续增加,这与具有互补性的技术采用模型的预测一致。模型估计表明,若无互补性,采用率将降低45%。我们的结果说明了大幅但暂时的干预如何有助于克服协调摩擦,尽管我们提醒此类干预也可能加剧采用中的初始差异。

Abstract

We provide evidence on the importance of coordination frictions in technology adoption, using data from a large provider of electronic wallets during the Indian demonetization. Exploiting geographical variation in exposure to the demonetization, we show that adoption of the wallet increased persistently in response to the large but temporary cash contraction, consistent with the predictions of a technology adoption model with complementarities. Model estimates indicate that adoption would have been 45% lower without complementarities. Our results illustrate how large but temporary interventions can help overcome coordination frictions, though we caution that such interventions may also exacerbate initial differences in adoption.
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