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信息摩擦、声誉与主权利差

Information Frictions, Reputation, and Sovereign Spreads
Journal of Political Economy · 2023 · Juan Morelli、Matías Moretti

中文摘要

我们构建了一个声誉模型,其中政府类型随时间变化且为私人信息。代理人利用关于政府政策的噪声信号来调整其对政府类型的信念(即声誉)。我们考察一个债务偿还情境,其中声誉影响市场所感知的违约概率,进而影响主权利差。我们聚焦于2007—2012年阿根廷通胀虚报事件,以量化市场如何为声誉定价。我们发现,虚报显著提高了阿根廷的主权利差。我们利用这些估计来约束我们的模型,并表明声誉可以对政府的借贷成本产生长期影响。

Abstract

We formulate a reputational model in which the type of government is time varying and private information. Agents adjust their beliefs about the government’s type (i.e., reputation) using noisy signals about its policies. We consider a debt repayment setting in which reputation influences the market’s perceived probability of default, which affects sovereign spreads. We focus on the 2007–12 Argentine episode of inflation misreport to quantify how markets price reputation. We find that the misreports significantly increased Argentina’s sovereign spreads. We use those estimates to discipline our model and show that reputation can have long-lasting effects on a government’s borrowing costs.
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