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城市增长及其总量影响

Urban Growth and Its Aggregate Implications
Econometrica · 2023 · Gilles Duranton、Diego Puga

中文摘要

我们构建了一个城市增长模型,其中人力资本溢出效应促进了异质性城市中的创业与学习。现有居民通过规划管制限制城市扩张,从而使通勤和住房成本不超过集聚带来的生产率收益。该模型建立在坚实的微观基础之上,能够拟合城市层面和整体经济层面的关键规律,并产生了一些我们为之提供证据的新预测。该模型仅依赖少量参数即可量化,并为我们估计这些参数提供了基础。我们通过放松规划管制或限制城市增长的反事实情景进行考察,以评估城市对经济增长和总产出的影响。

Abstract

We develop an urban growth model where human capital spillovers foster entrepreneurship and learning in heterogeneous cities. Incumbent residents limit city expansion through planning regulations so that commuting and housing costs do not outweigh productivity gains from agglomeration. The model builds on strong microfoundations, matches key regularities at the city and economy‐wide levels, and generates novel predictions for which we provide evidence. It can be quantified by relying on few parameters and gives us a basis to estimate them. We examine counterfactuals relaxing planning regulations or constraining city growth to assess the effect of cities on economic growth and aggregate output.
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