← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

分选的解剖——来自丹麦数据的证据

The Anatomy of Sorting—Evidence From Danish Data
Econometrica · 2023 · Rasmus Lentz、Suphanit Piyapromdee、Jean‐Marc Robin

中文摘要

在本文中,我们构建并估计了一个具有双边异质性的工作流动与工资的灵活模型。该分析扩展了Bonhomme, Lamadon和Manresa (2019)以及Abowd, McKinney和Schmutte (2019)的有限混合方法,开发了一种新的分类期望最大化算法,利用数据中的工资与流动变异确保工人与企业潜在类型的同时识别。工人在按工人类型分割的劳动力市场中收到工作邀约。邀约根据比较当前工作与新工作价值的logit形式被接受。结合灵活估计的解雇率与求职率,该分析量化了分选的四个不同来源:工作偏好、分割、解雇与求职。工作偏好通过显示偏好论证中的工作间流动来识别。在模型中,它们在结构上独立于已识别的工作工资,这可能反映了便利设施的存在。我们发现了工作偏好中存在强烈货币动机的证据。尽管偏好与当前工作工资之间的相关性为正,但给定当前工作下未来收入流的净现值与对该工作的偏好相关性要强得多。对于短任职期工人而言,这一点比长任职期工人更为明显。在分析中,我们区分了类型分选与工资分选。类型分选通过互信息指数加以量化。工资分选则通过已识别的工资类型之间的相关性来捕捉。尽管解雇不如其他渠道重要,我们发现所有渠道都对分选有显著贡献。随着工人年龄增长,工作到达过程是工资分选的关键决定因素,而工作偏好的作用则主导了类型分选。在整个生命周期中,工作偏好增强,类型分选增加,而货币考量减弱。

Abstract

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a flexible model of job mobility and wages with two‐sided heterogeneity. The analysis extends the finite mixture approach of Bonhomme, Lamadon, and Manresa (2019) and Abowd, McKinney, and Schmutte (2019) to develop a new Classification Expectation‐Maximization algorithm that ensures both worker and firm latent‐type identification using wage and mobility variations in the data. Workers receive job offers in worker‐type segmented labor markets. Offers are accepted according to a logit form that compares the value of the current job with that of the new job. In combination with flexibly estimated layoff and job finding rates, the analysis quantifies the four different sources of sorting: job preferences, segmentation, layoffs, and job finding. Job preferences are identified through job‐to‐job moves in a revealed preference argument. They are in the model structurally independent of the identified job wages, possibly as a reflection of the presence of amenities. We find evidence of a strong pecuniary motive in job preferences. While the correlation between preferences and current job wages is positive, the net present value of the future earnings stream given the current job correlates much more strongly with preferences for it. This is more so for short‐ than long‐tenure workers. In the analysis, we distinguish between type sorting and wage sorting. Type sorting is quantified by means of the mutual information index. Wage sorting is captured through correlation between identified wage types. While layoffs are less important than the other channels, we find all channels to contribute substantially to sorting. As workers age, job arrival processes are the key determinant of wage sorting, whereas the role of job preferences dictate type sorting. Over the life cycle, job preferences intensify, type sorting increases, and pecuniary considerations wane.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →