Presidential Address: Demand‐Side Constraints in Development. The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality
中文摘要
在一个经济民族主义抬头、国际一体化程度下降的世界中，通往发展的路径是什么？本文在一个强调需求侧约束对国家发展所起作用的框架内回答这一问题，其中国家发展被界定为持续减贫。在这一框架中，发展与不完全竞争企业采用规模报酬递增技术相关，而这些企业需要支付转向该技术的固定设置成本。持续减贫被衡量为在五年期间内，按2011年美元购买力平价计算、每日生活费低于1.90美元的人口占比持续下降。这一结果受到国内市场规模和国际市场规模在统计上显著且具有经济意义的影响，其中国内市场规模被衡量为收入分配的函数，国际市场规模被衡量为国际贸易协定中具有法律约束力条款的函数，这些协定包括《关税与贸易总协定》、世界贸易组织协定以及279项优惠贸易协定。反事实估计表明，在缺乏国际一体化的情况下，低收入或中低收入国家的普通居民所处的市场规模不足以使其经历持续减贫。旨在壮大中产阶层的国内再分配可以部分弥补国际市场的缺失。
Abstract
What is the pathway to development in a world marked by rising economic nationalism and less international integration? This paper answers this question within a framework that emphasizes the role of demand‐side constraints on national development, which is identified with sustained poverty reduction. In this framework, development is linked to the adoption of an increasing returns to scale technology by imperfectly competitive firms that need to pay the fixed setup cost of switching to that technology. Sustained poverty reduction is measured as a continuous decline in the share of the population living below $1.90/day purchasing power parity in 2011 U.S. dollars over a five‐year period. This outcome is affected in a statistically significant and economically meaningful way by domestic market size, which is measured as a function of the income distribution, and international market size, which is measured as a function of legally‐binding provisions to international trade agreements, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the World Trade Organization, and 279 preferential trade agreements. Counterfactual estimates suggest that, in the absence of international integration, the average resident of a low‐ or lower‐middle‐income country does not live in a market large enough to experience sustained poverty reduction. Domestic redistribution targeted towards generating a larger middle class can partially compensate for the lack of an international market.