非参数选择模型中的福利效应估计: 教育券的案例
Estimating Welfare Effects in a Non-Parametric Choice Model: The Case of School Vouchers
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Vishal Kamat", "affiliation": ["Queen Mary University of London", "Toulouse School of Economics"]}, {"name": "Samuel Norris", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia", "University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们开发了新的稳健离散选择工具, 用以在价格存在外生、离散变异的条件下, 了解对价格补贴的平均支付意愿及其对需求的影响。我们的出发点是一个非参数、不可分的选择模型。我们利用了这样一个洞见: 该模型中的福利参数可以表示为对不同备选项需求的函数。然而, 尽管数据中的变异揭示了在观测价格处的需求值, 这些参数通常还依赖于这些价格之外的需求值。我们展示了当需求被设定为完全非参数、或以灵活方式参数化时, 如何精确刻画我们所能了解的内容; 这两种设定均意味着参数不一定被点识别。我们运用这些工具分析了华盛顿特区机会奖学金项目 (DC Opportunity Scholarship Program) 中教育券所提供的价格补贴的福利效应。我们发现, 提供现行教育券以及一系列不同金额的反事实教育券, 均可带来扣除成本后为正且可能相当可观的净收益。这一正效应可由项目中低学费学校的受欢迎程度来解释; 若将这些学校移出项目, 则可能导致净收益为负。我们还发现, 相比之下, 各种标准 logit 设定将关注范围局限于对教育券需求较低的需求函数, 而这些函数无法捕捉到与数据可信一致的大规模收益。
Abstract
Abstract We develop new robust discrete choice tools to learn about the average willingness to pay for a price subsidy and its effects on demand given exogenous, discrete variation in prices. Our starting point is a non-parametric, non-separable model of choice. We exploit the insight that our welfare parameters in this model can be expressed as functions of demand for the different alternatives. However, while the variation in the data reveals the value of demand at the observed prices, the parameters generally depend on its values beyond these prices. We show how to sharply characterize what we can learn when demand is specified to be entirely non-parametric or to be parametrized in a flexible manner, both of which imply that the parameters are not necessarily point identified. We use our tools to analyse the welfare effects of price subsidies provided by school vouchers in the DC Opportunity Scholarship Program. We find that the provision of the status quo voucher and a wide range of counterfactual vouchers of different amounts can have positive and potentially large benefits net of costs. The positive effect can be explained by the popularity of low-tuition schools in the programme; removing them from the programme can result in a negative net benefit. We also find that various standard logit specifications, in comparison, limit attention to demand functions with low demand for the voucher, which do not capture the large magnitudes of benefits credibly consistent with the data.