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朋友的一点帮助:有组织犯罪阴影下的政治竞争

With a little help from my friends. Political competition in the shadow of organized crime
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Pasquale Accardo、Giuseppe De Feo、Giacomo De Luca

中文摘要

更高的选举竞争可能会强化政治上活跃的犯罪组织的地位,这些组织可以通过支持政治人物来换取利益。本文将这一直觉形式化,并以1991年选举改革作为议会两院之一选举竞争变化的外生来源,利用意大利选举数据对其进行了检验。我们的三重差分估计表明,改革后,仅在受改革影响的那一院中,易受黑手党影响的地区给予传统上受犯罪组织支持的政党的得票份额更高,且同一政党候选人之间的得票分散程度更大。

Abstract

Higher electoral competition may reinforce the position of politically active criminal organizations, which can endorse politicians in exchange for favors. This paper formalizes this intuition and test it on Italian electoral data, using the 1991 electoral reform as an exogenous source of variation in electoral competition in one of the two branches of the Parliament. Our triple-difference estimates suggest that after the reform mafia-prone areas reported higher vote shares awarded to the party traditionally supported by criminal organizations only for the branch affected by the reform, and a larger dispersion of votes across candidates of the same party.
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