The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession on Less Educated Women’s Human Capital: Some Projections
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major declines in employment of women. We provide projections of impacts of this reduction on less educated women’s future human capital framed within the traditional Mincerian model. We find that wage losses one year out from 2020 are relatively modest on average, generally less than 1%, with the largest for married women without children in the home. But losses are greater for young married women, mothers with very young children, and those working in COVID-impacted industries. School and childcare closures increase negative wage impacts for married mothers by an additional 50%.