负所得税下的福利与工作：来自加里、西雅图、丹佛和曼尼托巴收入维持实验的证据

中文摘要

随着国际社会对基本收入的兴趣日益浓厚，收入维持实验重新受到关注。负所得税（NIT）的支持者将其视为传统福利制度的替代方案，认为它能够提供更强的工作激励。然而，现有针对单身母亲（即符合福利领取资格者）的劳动供给估计结果无一例外均为负。我们重新评估了实验证据，发现两项负所得税实验（加里和西雅图）存在随机化失败问题。在丹佛和曼尼托巴，我们发现，随机分组前领取福利者的劳动供给呈正向响应。我们的结果提供了有力证据，表明负所得税能够增加领取福利的单身母亲的工作活动。

Abstract

The income maintenance experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a basic income. Proponents of a negative income tax (NIT) viewed it as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives. However, existing labor supply estimates for single mothers (those eligible for welfare) are uniformly negative. We reassess the experimental evidence and find randomization failure in two NITs (Gary and Seattle). In Denver and Manitoba, we find positive labor supply responses for those on welfare before random assignment. Our results provide strong evidence that an NIT can increase work activity among single mothers on welfare.