野火对玻利维亚贫困的影响

中文摘要

本文考察野火事件对玻利维亚贫困和劳动力市场的影响。为此，我们将美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的MODIS Collection-6 MCD64A1过火面积产品数据与2005—2020年的住户调查数据进行匹配。我们采用最大p区域算法对相似的相邻市镇进行聚类，以实现住户调查在精细地理层级上的代表性。我们采用交互固定效应反事实估计量，估计野火事件对贫困、家庭人均收入和农业收入的因果效应。我们发现，野火事件发生后，贫困在短期内显著上升，这可由家庭人均收入和农业劳动收入的暂时下降来解释。本文有助于深化我们对野火如何影响发展中经济体劳动力市场的理解。

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of wildfire events on poverty and the labor market in Bolivia. To this end, we match data from NASA’s MODIS Collection-6 MCD64A1 burned area product with household surveys for the period 2005–2020. Similar neighboring municipalities are clustered using the max-p-region algorithm to achieve survey representativeness at granular geographical levels. The causal effects of wildfire events on poverty, household per capita income, and agricultural income are estimated using the Interactive Fixed Effects Counterfactual Estimator. We find a significant short-term increase in poverty following a wildfire event, explained by a temporary decline in household per capita income and agricultural labor income. This paper contributes to enhancing our understanding of how wildfires affect labor markets in developing economies.