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气候变化应对:农业中的要素调整

Climate change response: Input adjustment in agriculture
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Sebastián Figari

中文摘要

农民如何应对气候变化?本研究利用智利数十万个农场的数据,分析气温和降水的中期波动,考察要素调整作为缓解气候变化影响的一种机制。研究发现,极端高温导致土地从水果生产重新配置到谷物和林业品种。尽管这一适应策略有助于维持农业产出,但也导致农业部门内就业岗位流失和物质资本下降。这一结果的产生是因为水果部门是农业中劳动密集程度最高的部门,因此被置换的劳动者难以在该部门内实现重新就业。此外,我还记录了野火与极端高温之间存在密切的相关关系,尤其是在以林业为专业化产业的市镇中更为显著。

Abstract

How do farmers respond to climate change? Using data from hundreds of thousands of farms and analyzing medium-term fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in Chile, this study examines factor adjustment as a mechanism to mitigate the effects of climate change. The findings indicate that extreme heat leads to land reallocation from fruit production to cereal and forestry varieties. While this adaptation strategy helps sustain agricultural output, it also leads to job losses and a decline in physical capital within the agricultural sector. This result arises because the fruit sector is the most labor-intensive within agriculture, and as a result, displaced workers struggle to find reemployment within the sector. Additionally, I document a strong relationship between wildfires and extreme heat, particularly in municipalities specializing in forestry.
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