税收-收益关联对工薪税归宿重要吗?

Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · [{"name": "Antoine Bozio", "affiliation": ["École des hautes études en sciences sociales"]}, {"name": "Thomas Breda", "affiliation": ["Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique", "Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (CNRST)", "Paris School of Economics"]}, {"name": "Julien Grenet", "affiliation": ["Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique", "Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (CNRST)", "Paris School of Economics"]}, {"name": "Arthur Guillouzouic", "affiliation": ["Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique", "Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (CNRST)", "Paris School of Economics"]}]

中文摘要

摘要我们分析了法国六项大规模工资税与所得税改革下的收入反应。研究结果表明，当缴费与预期福利之间存在强而透明的联系时，税负完全转嫁给劳动者。相比之下，不存在税收—福利联系的雇主工资税向劳动者的转嫁有限，而名义上由雇员承担的所得税则几乎完全转嫁。结合对文献的元分析，我们将这些结果解读为对一个长期假说的经验支持，即税收—福利联系对工资税的税负归宿具有重要影响。在缺乏这种联系的情况下，我们的发现表明，工资税在个体层面的归宿与其法定归宿一致。

Abstract

Abstract We analyse earnings responses to six large payroll tax and income tax reforms in France. Our findings indicate full pass-through to workers when there is a strong and transparent link between contributions and expected benefits. In contrast, employer payroll taxes with no tax-benefit linkage exhibit limited pass-through to workers, while income tax nominally borne by employees show nearly full pass-through. Together with a meta-analysis of the literature, we interpret these results as empirical support for the long-standing hypothesis that tax-benefit linkage matters for the incidence of payroll taxes. In the absence of such linkage, our findings suggest that the individual-level incidence of payroll taxes aligns with their statutory incidence.