中文摘要
本研究考察空气污染对一种认知要求较低的普遍金融决策的影响。基于中国一家领先P2P借贷平台的281,314条还款记录，我们发现，当预定还款日的空气污染较为严重时，借款人更有可能遗漏还款。空气质量从“优”恶化至“重度污染”，与逾期率即时且暂时性上升143.3个基点（11.3%）相关。基于风力输送污染物或逆温现象的工具变量估计得出了类似结果。我们的发现与以下解释一致：空气污染促使借款人忘记其还款义务，而这种遗漏并不表明其陷入财务困境。然而，污染引致的逾期会降低借款人的信用评级和未来贷款申请的成功率，其影响幅度与不太可能由污染驱动的逾期所造成的影响相当，这意味着存在信贷错配。
Abstract
This study examines the impact of air pollution on a universal financial decision that is cognitively less demanding. Based on 281,314 repayment records from a leading P2P lending platform in China, we find that borrowers are more likely to miss their repayments when the scheduled repayment days witness heavier air pollution. A deterioration of air quality from “excellent” to “severely polluted” is associated with an instantaneous and transitory increase in delinquency rate by 143.3 basis points (11.3%). Instrumental variable estimates based on pollution transport via wind or thermal inversion show similar results. Our findings are consistent with air pollution prompting borrowers to forget their repayment obligations, which do not indicate financial distress. However, pollution-induced delinquencies reduce borrowers’ credit ratings and success rates of future loan applications, with the effect being as large as that due to delinquencies unlikely to be driven by pollution, implying a misallocation of credit.