Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Rita K. Almeida、Carlos Henrique Leite Corseuil、Jennifer P. Poole
中文摘要
1999年至2006年间，巴西城市的互联网服务供给经历了强劲增长，这在一定程度上是由电信行业私有化所推动的。政策制定者的一个主要担忧是，数字技术会替代常规性、体力性任务，从而挤出主要从事这些任务的低技能工人。在巴西，存在严格的劳动力市场制度以保护工人免受此类挤出的影响；但是，劳动力市场监管在提高正规用工成本的同时，也限制了企业调整劳动力以执行新任务、并充分受益于技术采用的能力。我们利用行政数据和调查数据，并采用三重差分方法，表明相较于低科技行业，数字技术的采用使高科技行业（即那些准备采用新技术的行业）的劳动需求转向更多地从事非常规活动和运用认知能力。此外，与劳动力市场政策的初衷相反，我们表明，事实上的劳动力规制对通常与技能更高的工人相关的任务使用形成了差异化支持，尤其是对那些从事非常规和认知任务的工人。我们的结果揭示了中等收入环境下劳动力市场未来的重要变化，并警示严格的劳动力市场政策可能产生扭曲性和非预期的后果。
Abstract
Between 1999 and 2006, Brazilian cities experienced strong growth in the provision of internet services, driven in part by the privatization of the telecommunications industry. A main concern of policymakers is that digital technology replaces routine, manual tasks, displacing lower-skilled workers that mainly perform these tasks. In Brazil, stringent labor market institutions exist to protect workers from such displacement; but, by increasing formal labor costs, labor market regulations also constrain firms from adjusting the workforce to perform new tasks, and fully benefiting from technology adoption. We exploit administrative and survey data, and a triple differences methodology, to show that digital technology adoption shifts labor demand toward the increased performance of non-routine activities and use of cognitive abilities in high-tech industries (those poised to adopt the new technologies) relative to low-tech industries. Furthermore, and in contrast with labor market policy intentions, we show that de facto labor regulations differentially support the use of tasks typically associated with more skilled workers, particularly those workers employed in non-routine and cognitive tasks. Our results point to important changes in the future of labor markets in middle-income settings and warn for distortive and unintended consequences of strict labor market policies.