Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Nathan Fiala、Julian Rose、Filder Aryemo、Jörg Peters
中文摘要
我们考察了乌干达一项一次性随机创业现金补助在干预实施十二年后的长期影响，此次追踪恰逢新冠疫情封锁期间。先前研究发现，该项目在四年后产生了相当大的正向效应；九年后，其对收入的效应消失，但一些结构性变化仍然持续。在十二年期追踪中，我们发现该项目对就业和收入具有正向效应，但仅限于男性，对粮食安全则没有影响。这些具有性别差异的效应可能并非该项目长期影响的最终结论。相反，本文强调，追踪研究的时机至关重要，尤其是在封锁等冲击存在的情况下。 • 考察乌干达一项一次性现金补助项目在新冠疫情封锁期间的长期效应（十二年）。 • 男性受益者报告收入增加、就业增多，而对女性及粮食安全的效应不显著。 • 研究强调，长期评估的时机会显著影响所观察到的结果，尤其是在外部冲击下。 • 使用单因素分析法（OFAT）和设定曲线分析表明结果具有稳健性。
Abstract
We investigate the long-run impacts of a one-time randomized entrepreneurial cash grant in Uganda during COVID-19 lockdowns, twelve years after the intervention. Previous research documented considerable positive effects after four years, which vanished for income after nine years, while some structural changes persisted. For the 12-year follow-up, we find positive effects on employment and income, but for men only, and no effects on food security. These gender-specific effects might not be the last word on the program's long-term impact. Rather, our paper emphasizes that the timing of follow-up studies matters, particularly in the presence of shocks such as the lockdowns. • Examines the long-run effects (12 years) of a one-time cash grant program in Uganda during COVID-19 lockdowns. • Male beneficiaries report increased income and more employment while the effects for the women and on food security are insignificant. • Study emphasizes that the timing of long-term evaluations significantly influences observed outcomes, particularly under external shocks. • Uses OFAT and specification curve analysis to show robustness of results.