中文摘要
宏观经济政策决策的评估传统上依赖于特定经济模型的构建。在本文中，我们表明两个统计量就足以识别、甚至常常能够纠正非最优政策，即未使损失函数最小化的政策。这两个充分统计量为： 以政策选择为条件的政策目标预测，以及 政策目标对政策冲击的脉冲响应。这两个统计量均可在不依赖特定结构性经济模型的情况下进行估计。我们通过研究美国货币政策决策来说明该方法。(JEL E24, E31, E32, E43, E52, E58)
Abstract
The evaluation of macroeconomic policy decisions has traditionally relied on the formulation of a specific economic model. In this work, we show that two statistics are sufficient to detect, often even correct, nonoptimal policies, i.e., policies that do not minimize the loss function. The two sufficient statistics are (i) forecasts for the policy objectives conditional on the policy choice and (ii) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to policy shocks. Both statistics can be estimated without relying on a specific structural economic model. We illustrate the method by studying US monetary policy decisions. (JEL E24, E31, E32, E43, E52, E58)