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偏好与技术之间的竞赛

The Race Between Preferences and Technology
Econometrica · 2023 · Joachim Hubmer

中文摘要

本文认为,需要对消费和生产进行统一分析以理解美国劳动份额的长期行为。首先,使用关于消费者支出总体的家庭数据,我发现较高收入家庭在劳动密集型商品和服务上的支出占其总消费的比例相对更大。将此解释为非同位相似偏好,该事实意味着经济增长通过收入效应提高了总体劳动份额。其次,使用关于要素份额和资本密集度的分类数据,我发现设备密集型商品的劳动份额经历了相对较大的下降。基于这一发现,我估计资本和劳动为总替代品,且投资专有技术变迁降低了劳动份额。给定估计的弹性,一个简约的新古典模型在定量上匹配了自20世纪50年代以来总体劳动份额观测到的低频变动,包括其直到大约1980年的相对稳定以及此后的下降。

Abstract

This paper argues that a unified analysis of consumption and production is required to understand the long‐run behavior of the U.S. labor share. First, using household data on the universe of consumer spending, I document that higher‐income households spend relatively more on labor‐intensive goods and services as a share of their total consumption. Interpreted as nonhomothetic preferences, this fact implies that economic growth increases the aggregate labor share through an income effect. Second, using disaggregated data on factor shares and capital intensities, I document that equipment‐intensive goods experienced relatively larger declines in their labor shares. Based on this finding, I estimate that capital and labor are gross substitutes, and that investment‐specific technical change reduces the labor share. Given the estimated elasticities, a parsimonious neoclassical model quantitatively matches the observed low‐frequency movements in the aggregate labor share since the 1950s, both its relative stability until about 1980 and its decline thereafter.
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