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阿片类药物危机的起源及其持久影响

Origins of the Opioid Crisis and its Enduring Impacts
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2021 · Abby Alpert、William N. Evans、Ethan M.J. Lieber、David Powell

中文摘要

自20世纪90年代以来,涉及阿片类药物的过量死亡人数急剧增加,导致了美国历史上最严重的药物过量危机,但关于其初始成因的经验证据仍然有限。本文考察了奥施康定于1996年上市及其营销活动所发挥的作用,探讨其是否为阿片类药物危机的潜在主要成因。由于一项州级政策大幅限制了该药物早期进入部分州及在这些州开展营销,各州受奥施康定上市影响的程度存在差异,我们利用了这一差异。近期解封的涉及普渡制药的法院文件显示,州级三联处方制度对奥施康定的销售构成了重大障碍,并表明针对实施该制度各州的营销活动较少。我们发现,在该药上市后的数年里,“三联处方州”的奥施康定分销量低50%以上。尽管1996年以前三联处方州的过量死亡率较高,但这一关系在奥施康定上市后不久便发生逆转;三联处方州的过量死亡增速显著较慢,而且这一情形在奥施康定上市20年后仍在持续。我们的结果表明,过去20年中相当大一部分过量死亡可由奥施康定的上市和营销活动解释。

Abstract

Overdose deaths involving opioids have increased dramatically since the 1990s, leading to the worst drug overdose epidemic in U.S. history, but there is limited empirical evidence about the initial causes. In this article, we examine the role of the 1996 introduction and marketing of OxyContin as a potential leading cause of the opioid crisis. We leverage cross-state variation in exposure to OxyContin's introduction due to a state policy that substantially limited the drug's early entry and marketing in select states. Recently unsealed court documents involving Purdue Pharma show that state-based triplicate prescription programs posed a major obstacle to sales of OxyContin and suggest that less marketing was targeted to states with these programs. We find that OxyContin distribution was more than 50% lower in "triplicate states" in the years after the drug's launch. Although triplicate states had higher rates of overdose deaths prior to 1996, this relationship flipped shortly after the launch and triplicate states saw substantially slower growth in overdose deaths, continuing even 20 years after OxyContin's introduction. Our results show that the introduction and marketing of OxyContin explain a substantial share of overdose deaths over the past two decades.
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