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生育与父母退休

Fertility and parental retirement
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Julius Ilciukas

中文摘要

本文研究一代人退休机会的减少如何影响下一代的生育。本文使用荷兰行政数据,并利用2006年荷兰养老金改革进行识别,该改革促使1950年1月1日及以后出生的个人推迟退休,而此前出生者则不受影响。研究发现,该改革降低了母亲受改革影响的女性的生育率。这一下降在经济意义上显著,并且在改革对退休的影响消退后仍持续存在。本文还以调查证据补充分析,并论证生育率下降可由祖辈儿童照料供给减少来解释。

Abstract

I study how reduced retirement opportunities in one generation affect fertility in the subsequent generation. I use administrative Dutch data and exploit the 2006 Dutch pension reform, which induced individuals born from January 1, 1950 onward to delay retirement while exempting those born earlier. I find that this reform reduced fertility among women with affected mothers. The reduction is economically significant and persists after the impact on retirement fades out. I supplement my analysis with survey evidence and argue that the fertility reduction can be explained by reduced grandparental child care supply.
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