Behavioral cross-influence of a shadow tax bracket: Evidence from bunching where income tax liabilities start
中文摘要
税收收入预测必须考虑收入对所有感知激励的反应，无论这些激励是否实际生效。本文探讨纳税申报人对无关激励作出反应的程度，并提出一种识别行为交叉影响（BCI）的方法；BCI 是 Farhi 和 Gabaix（2020）提出的一种行为弹性，用以刻画此类反应。本文使用2008年至2014年的法国所得税申报数据，根据收入对影子税档的反应识别 BCI；该影子税档恰好位于法国所得税纳税义务起征点之下。即使是过去能够正确优化其应税收入的纳税申报人，也会对无关税收激励的增加作出反应。BCI 远非为零，其数值相当于应税收入对感知激励弹性的56%至78%。仅考察实际生效激励的标准分析会将这一应税收入弹性低估60%。面临更高利害关系的纳税申报人较不容易受到无关激励的误导。
Abstract
Prediction of tax revenue must account for earnings responses with respect to all perceived incentives, whether they are effective or not. This paper explores the extent to which tax filers respond to irrelevant incentives and develops an identification procedure for the behavioral cross-influence (BCI), a behavioral elasticity created by Farhi and Gabaix (2020) to capture such responses. Relying on French income tax returns from 2008 to 2014, the BCI is identified from earnings responses to a shadow tax bracket located just below the threshold where French income tax liabilities start. Even tax filers who used to correctly optimize their taxable income react to an increase in irrelevant tax incentives. Far from being zero, the BCI represents between 56 % and 78 % of the elasticity of taxable income with respect to perceived incentives. Standard analysis restricted to effective incentives would underestimate this elasticity of taxable income by 60 %. Tax filers who face higher stakes are less likely to be misled by irrelevant incentives.