Intergenerational income mobility in France: A comparative and geographic analysis
中文摘要
本文利用丰富的行政数据，对20世纪70年代出生的法国儿童的代际收入流动性进行了新的估计。由于父母的收入未被观测到，我们采用两样本两阶段最小二乘估计法。利用收入动态面板研究(PSID)的数据，我们表明该方法会略微低估基于排名的代际持续性指标。研究结果表明，与其他发达国家相比，法国呈现出较强的代际持续性。出生于父母收入最低20%家庭的儿童中，有9.7%在成年后进入收入最高的20%，这一比例仅为出生于父母收入最高20%家庭儿童的四分之一。我们发现，各省之间的代际流动性存在巨大的空间差异，且地理流动性与代际向上流动性之间存在正相关关系。对于父母收入分布底端的个体，若其迁往高收入省份，其预期收入排名与留在童年所在省份、父母收入处于第75百分位的个体的预期收入排名大致相当。
Abstract
We provide new estimates of intergenerational income mobility in France for children born in the 1970s using rich administrative data. Since parents’ incomes are not observed, we employ a two-sample two-stage least squares estimation. We show, using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, that this method slightly underestimates rank-based measures of intergenerational persistence. Our results suggest France is characterized by a strong persistence relative to other developed countries. 9.7% of children born to parents in the bottom 20% reach the top 20% in adulthood, four times less than children from the top 20%. We uncover substantial spatial variations in intergenerational mobility across departments, and a positive relationship between geographic mobility and intergenerational upward mobility. The expected income rank of individuals from the bottom of the parent income distribution who moved towards high-income departments is around the same as the expected income rank of individuals from the 75th percentile who stayed in their childhood department.