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跨州策略性投票

Cross-State Strategic Voting
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Gordon B. Dahl、Joseph Engelberg、Runjing Lu、William Mullins

中文摘要

我们估计,2020年有3.1%的美国选民(即610万人)同时在两个州登记投票,这使他们有可能选择在哪里投票。双重登记选民集中于最富裕的邮政编码地区,并对激励和成本均有反应:他们不成比例地选择在摇摆州(激励更高)以及自动寄发邮寄选票的州(成本更低)投票。我们将这种行为称为“跨州策略性投票”。尽管已有研究记录了在投票给谁这一问题上的策略性激励,但本文首次考察在何处投票这一问题上的策略性激励。(JEL D63、D72、K16)

Abstract

We estimate that 3.1 percent of US voters, or 6.1 million individuals, were registered to vote in two states in 2020, opening up the possibility for them to choose where to vote. Double registrants are concentrated in the wealthiest zip codes and respond to both incentives and costs, disproportionately choosing to vote in swing states (higher incentive) and states that automatically send out mail-in ballots (lower cost). We call this behavior Cross-State Strategic Voting. While others have documented strategic incentives on who to vote for, this paper is the first to consider strategic incentives on where to vote. (JEL D63, D72, K16)
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