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货币独立性与债务展期危机

Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2021 · Javier Bianchi、Jorge Mondragon

中文摘要

本文表明,无法运用货币政策稳定宏观经济,会使政府更容易受到债务展期危机的冲击。我们研究了一个包含自我实现的债务展期危机、外币债务和名义刚性的主权违约模型。当政府缺乏货币独立性时,贷款人预期政府一旦发生流动性危机将面临严重衰退,因而更容易挤兑政府债券。在对欧元区债务危机的定量分析中,我们发现,缺乏货币自主权在导致西班牙易受债务展期危机冲击方面发挥了核心作用。最后,我们认为,最后贷款人可以在很大程度上降低放弃货币独立性的成本。

Abstract

Abstract This article shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. In a quantitative application to the Eurozone debt crisis, we find that the lack of monetary autonomy played a central role in making Spain vulnerable to a rollover crisis. Finally, we argue that a lender of last resort can go a long way toward reducing the costs of giving up monetary independence.
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