收入的商业周期：新冠衰退、复苏与政策应对

中文摘要

利用税收数据面板，我们追踪了个人收入在商业周期中的变化。与以往的经济衰退相比，新冠疫情期间的政策应对和复苏更具累进性。在初始处于最低收入五分位的劳动者中，计入财政救助后的实际收入中位数在2020年增长了66%；而在此前两次经济衰退后，这一指标均有所下降。这一增长源于新冠疫情期间大规模的经济刺激款项和失业保险。随着财政救助终止，最低收入五分位群体2022年的收入回落至接近新冠疫情前的水平。在初始处于最高收入五分位的劳动者中，实际市场收入中位数在2020年有所上升。此后，最高收入五分位群体的收入有所下降，但降幅小于此前历次经济衰退时期的降幅。

Abstract

Using a panel of tax data, we follow individuals’ earnings over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020—after the prior two recessions this measure decreased. This resulted from substantial Covid-era stimulus payments and unemployment insurance. With fiscal relief ending, bottom-quintile earnings in 2022 returned near pre-Covid levels. Among those starting in the top quintile, median real market earnings rose in 2020. Top-quintile earnings subsequently fell, although by less than around previous recessions.